Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

62 0x6239…de4c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$63 (+7%) realized +$63 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip

Net edge+50%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$215per market

Trades / day13.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+62.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+79.6%	+62.5%	50%	50%	-88.5%
≤30d	4	+79.6%	+62.5%	50%	50%	-88.5%
≤90d	4	+79.6%	+62.5%	50%	50%	-88.5%
all	4	+79.6%	+62.5%	50%	50%	-88.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+62.5%	50%	-88.5%
10%	+46.9%	50%	-89.6%
15%	+32.7%	50%	-90.6%
20%	+19.7%	50%	-91.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -87% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +80% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$402 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$63

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$215

Trades / day13.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$816	−$800	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$45	+442%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$21	+69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$410	52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	50¢	$406	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$32	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$2	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$19	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$3	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	66¢	$10	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records