Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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62 0x6239…1d79 sports 820 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,533 (+0%) realized +$2,282 · open −$749
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%423W / 393L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,010per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$7,776est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 183d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,007
crypto 0% −$549
other 0% −$480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +68.3% +52.3% 100% 100% +52.3%
≤30d 103 -13.0% -21.2% 59% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 614 -14.6% -22.7% 47% 42% -22.2%
all 816 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 48% -9.9%
10% -22.2% 47% -18.5%
15% -29.7% 45% -26.4%
20% -36.6% 40% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,183) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$817 vs −$888 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$2,282
Unrealized−$749
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses423 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$7,776
Open positions3
Markets (closed)816 / 820
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,010
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 816 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 58¢ 62¢ $500 $530 +$30 (+6%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 37¢ 3¢ $340 $28 −$312 (-92%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 58¢ 0¢ $472 $4 −$468 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $507 +$346 +68%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $513 −$508 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $475 +$247 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $303 +$172 +57%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $646 −$306 -47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $215 −$212 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $543 −$534 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $215 −$211 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $404 +$201 +50%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $213 +$144 +67%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $326 +$291 +89%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $248 −$243 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $313 −$309 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $185 +$375 +203%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $179 +$249 +139%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $118 +$61 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $235 −$231 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $337 −$332 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $215 +$123 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $130 +$85 +66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $393 −$388 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $202 −$17 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $137 +$65 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $167 −$165 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $101 +$66 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $178 −$175 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 +$318 +156%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $340 −$338 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $337 −$333 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $258 +$419 +162%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $335 +$132 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $126 +$234 +185%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $190 −$63 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $198 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $190 +$145 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 37¢ $346 17m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 58¢ $506 19m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 94¢ $853 20m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 58¢ $478 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $507 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. BUY 11¢ $149 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $50 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $303 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ $160 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $722 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $475 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $476 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 59¢ $304 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 58¢ $329 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 59¢ $343 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 63¢ $303 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $215 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $543 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $304 7d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Infinite 41¢ $215 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $605 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $213 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $404 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $617 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $248 8d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $313 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $560 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $326 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $428 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.73 · official $562.73 (match) · 1613 history records