Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6237…3743 world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$3
other 27% −$2
sports 17% +$3
politics 13% −$13
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -2.7% -12.0% 19% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 4% -9.5%
all 78 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage536d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $61 −$4 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $22 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $62 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $41 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $46 +$4 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $66 +$5 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $90 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 +$1 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $75 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $78 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $16 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $25 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records