Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6230…c417 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-4%) realized −$253 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%54W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$91
14 days−$91
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$245
other 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -93.2% -93.8% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤30d 54 -60.4% -64.2% 19% 13% -43.8%
≤90d 88 -40.9% -46.5% 20% 14% -16.2%
all 188 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 20% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 20% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 15% -23.0%
15% -40.1% 10% -30.4%
20% -46.0% 6% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses54 / 134
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 161
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -286%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -806%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -534%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -614%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$6 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$14 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $18 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 23 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 23 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 23 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 23 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 23 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 23 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $22 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $36 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $9 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.74 · official $171.74 (match) · 3500 history records