Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x622d…ee74 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+15%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$60
other 29% +$25
crypto 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 40% 40% -13.4%
≤30d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 40% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 40% 40% -13.4%
all 11 +9.8% -0.6% 45% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 45% -12.5%
10% -10.1% 45% -20.9%
15% -18.8% 45% -28.5%
20% -26.8% 36% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$39 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage178d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $203 −$114 -56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$34 -67%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $89 +$63 +70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $51 +$71 +140%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$35 +114%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 −$36 -71%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$33 +65%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $183 −$38 -21%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 02 $20 +$8 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $36 32m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $53 35m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 38m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $98 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $89 27h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $15 44h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $40 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $143 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records