Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622a…2b59 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$534 (+3%) realized +$3,163 · open −$2,629
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 54L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 194d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,752
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -86.3% -87.6% 10% 0% -93.8%
≤30d 10 -86.3% -87.6% 10% 0% -93.8%
≤90d 10 -86.3% -87.6% 10% 0% -93.8%
all 70 +2.4% -7.4% 23% 17% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 17% -26.5%
10% -16.2% 13% -33.5%
15% -24.3% 11% -39.9%
20% -31.8% 9% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$110 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$770
Realized+$3,163
Unrealized−$2,629
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions11
Markets (closed)70 / 81
History coverage194d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ 2¢ $1,289 $689 −$600 (-47%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 2¢ 0¢ $1,307 $41 −$1,266 (-97%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $690 $26 −$664 (-96%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 1¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+221%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $130 −$90 -69%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $2,246 −$220 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $1,682 −$1,667 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $487 −$200 -41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $403 −$400 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $170 +$10 +6%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $123 +$993 +810%
Valorant: Sentinels vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff P Feb 07 $160 +$284 +177%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $507 −$507 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 06 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $867 +$51 +6%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 06 $110 −$102 -92%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 06 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 06 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $1,196 −$22 -2%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Grou Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group S Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 +$572 +643%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Gro Feb 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $100 −$93 -93%
Dota 2: Heroic vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $767 +$44 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 23 $242 +$40 +17%
Bills vs. Browns Dec 21 $165 +$5 +3%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 20 $463 −$6 -1%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $85 +$10 +12%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 19 $190 +$17 +9%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO1) Dec 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Dec 18 $36 +$7 +19%
Wizards vs. Spurs Dec 18 $33 −$30 -91%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) Dec 18 $1,240 +$557 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 18 $444 +$206 +46%
Clippers vs. Thunder Dec 18 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Dec 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Dec 17 $369 −$164 -44%
LoL: ZSM vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) Dec 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $5 8m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $30 10m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 10m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $126 12m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $260 12m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $100 13m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $50 13m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $50 13m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 13m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 13m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 14m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 16m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 20m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 23¢ $471 23m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 25m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $8 25m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 27m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 29m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 30m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 31m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 32m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $2 32m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 33m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 33m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 34m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $1 35m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $1 37m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 0¢ $0 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.15 · official $770.15 (match) · 1127 history records