Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x622a…96b5 crypto 1814 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$177 (-1%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%1290W / 549L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day57.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$248
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$30
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -10.9% -19.4% 71% 64% -9.2%
≤30d 1611 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 68% -12.0%
≤90d 1839 -4.9% -13.9% 70% 63% -11.2%
all 1839 -4.9% -13.9% 70% 63% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 63% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -19.7%
15% -29.7% 12% -27.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1290 / 549
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1839 / 1814
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day57.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1839 Trades
no open positions (398 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records