Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x6224…4ed0 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$225 (+5%) realized +$352 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$90
crypto 19% +$30
other 14% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.0% -13.2% 79% 42% -7.3%
≤30d 19 -4.0% -13.2% 79% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 33 +14.5% +3.6% 82% 42% -4.7%
all 33 +14.5% +3.6% 82% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 42% -4.7%
10% -6.3% 27% -13.8%
15% -15.4% 18% -22.1%
20% -23.7% 18% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$44 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$352
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage73d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 24¢ $256 $129 −$127 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $170 +$36 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $196 +$140 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $304 +$76 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 −$30 -72%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $501 +$25 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $44 −$23 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$4 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $34 +$6 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $446 +$5 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $422 +$17 +4%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $23 +$26 +113%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 04 $10 +$12 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 27 $594 +$6 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 27 $27 +$67 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $120 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $613 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 07 $25 +$25 +100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 06 $62 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $11 44m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $146 55m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 55m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $206 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $170 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $100 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $100 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $67 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $102 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $77 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.54 · official $144.28 · 138 history records