Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x6220…9cba crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 77% 59% +3.6%
≤30d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 77% 59% +3.6%
≤90d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 77% 59% +3.6%
all 22 +16.8% +5.7% 77% 59% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 59% +3.6%
10% -4.4% 36% -6.3%
15% -13.7% 32% -15.4%
20% -22.1% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records