Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x6214…20d1 world 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$632 (+21%) realized +$632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$407
7 days+$407
14 days+$407
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$345
politics 25% +$53
other 13% +$230
finance 6% −$2
tech 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤30d 1 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤90d 5 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 60% +21.9%
all 10 +8.0% -2.3% 70% 50% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% +15.7%
10% -11.7% 40% +4.6%
15% -20.2% 30% -5.5%
20% -28.0% 10% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$59 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage158d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 65¢ 69¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 65¢ 62¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $950 +$407 +43%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $288 +$133 +46%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $300 +$229 +76%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 23 $198 −$40 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $91 +$3 +4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $72 +$19 +26%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $65 +$6 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $159 −$43 -27%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $101 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $302 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 65¢ $101 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $950 37d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 70¢ $225 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 78d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $62 86d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? BUY No 8¢ $94 135d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? BUY Down 96¢ $91 135d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 135d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 79¢ $72 141d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $65 144d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $61 149d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 154d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 154d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $98 154d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $96 154d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 154d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 154d
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $300 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.10 · official $800.06 (match) · 33 history records