trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 17% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 26 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 50% | 15% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 15% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 12% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 12% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 12% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $105 | $105 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | May 16 | $800 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | May 16 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | May 16 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Apr 03 | $460 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 03 | $205 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 03 | $111 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Feb 14 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025? | Feb 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor? | Feb 12 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025? | Feb 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? | Feb 12 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 12? | Nov 20 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24? | Nov 12 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31? | Sep 03 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? | Jun 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? | May 19 | $2 | −$1 | -56% |
| Doge ETF approved in 2025? | Jan 16 | $6 | −$4 | -73% |
| World Chess Championship - Game 3 | Jan 16 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Will Harris win Virginia by 6+ points? | Nov 27 | $5 | +$3 | +65% |
| Will Coldplay be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? | Nov 27 | $657 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Nov 26 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | Nov 01 | $21 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? | Oct 10 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will a Democrat win Connecticut US Senate Election? | Oct 10 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Turkey suspends diplomatic relations with Israel? | Sep 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Aug 16 | $262 | +$2 | +1% |