Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6211…a0b2 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$159 (-33%) realized −$157 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$31
world 15% −$57
politics 15% −$21
sports 4% −$14
crypto 3% −$14
finance 2% −$12
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +26.0% +14.0% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤30d 2 +26.0% +14.0% 100% 100% +12.7%
≤90d 2 +26.0% +14.0% 100% 100% +12.7%
all 33 -43.5% -48.8% 15% 12% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 12% -41.3%
10% -53.7% 3% -46.9%
15% -58.2% 0% -52.0%
20% -62.3% 0% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage396d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14 +$5 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $22 +$4 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 23 $20 −$16 -79%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $11 −$9 -79%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $26 −$21 -82%
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? Nov 11 $13 −$5 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 07 $4 −$3 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 07 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $4 −$1 -32%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? Nov 06 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $230? Nov 05 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,120? Nov 05 $19 −$14 -71%
Will Palantir dip to $156 in November? Nov 05 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by November 30? Nov 05 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession s Nov 05 $0 $0 +14%
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? Nov 04 $8 −$4 -58%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by December 31? Nov 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 10 above $67? Nov 04 $8 −$1 -12%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 04 $52 −$3 -5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition Nov 04 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30? Nov 04 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/conce Nov 04 $0 $0 +2%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? Nov 04 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concess Nov 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 10 above $62? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? May 31 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 31 $23 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? May 30 $39 −$16 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 3h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes $4 155d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 163d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes $6 164d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 164d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes $5 164d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 164d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 164d
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 228d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? SELL Yes $0 232d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? SELL Yes $0 232d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes $1 233d
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 233d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY Yes $1 233d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY Yes $4 233d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY Yes $5 233d
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 233d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes $2 233d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes $2 233d
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 234d
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 234d
Will Donald Trump attend Dick Cheney's funeral? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 234d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $230? SELL Yes $2 234d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,120? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.78 · official $68.78 (match) · 96 history records