Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x620d…a2f2 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$542 (-48%) realized −$537 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$471
crypto 40% −$78
sports 12% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +21.0%
≤30d 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +21.0%
≤90d 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +21.0%
all 62 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 44% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -54.2%
10% -24.7% 31% -58.5%
15% -32.0% 27% -62.5%
20% -38.7% 18% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$537
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage131d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 48¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 45¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 10 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 10 $10 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 09 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 09 $20 +$7 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 09 $23 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 09 $16 −$1 -5%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $32 +$2 +5%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 09 $12 +$1 +11%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 58m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 59m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $10 59m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $7 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 126d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $22.05 · 147 history records