Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x620c…4bae crypto 9 markets active 6h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31,456 (+40%) realized +$31,456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$8,732per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,006
7 days+$30,034
14 days+$30,034
30 days+$30,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$30,052
crypto 26% +$71
politics 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 67% +37.4%
≤30d 3 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 67% +37.4%
≤90d 3 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 67% +37.4%
all 9 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 33% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 33% +25.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 33% +13.2%
15% -13.1% 22% +2.3%
20% -21.6% 11% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,350 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31,456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage233d
Avg bet$8,732
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,350 +$8,006 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47,480 +$22,027 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 16 $1,179 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 16 $8,852 +$36 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $500 +$31 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $647 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $9,481 +$19 +0%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? Oct 27 $81 +$19 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $18,356 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10,350 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $69,507 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $16,762 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30,688 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $532 219d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 98¢ $647 223d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8,852 225d
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2? BUY No 100¢ $647 225d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $21 230d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $9,481 230d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $500 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records