Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x620b…08f7 crypto 316 markets active 4d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,650 (-6%) realized −$1,650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%202W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,584
other 2% −$303
sports 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -20.2% -27.8% 55% 50% -27.0%
≤30d 22 -20.2% -27.8% 55% 50% -27.0%
≤90d 92 -6.8% -15.7% 70% 46% -14.5%
all 316 -7.1% -16.0% 64% 46% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -15.6%
10% -24.0% 31% -23.7%
15% -31.3% 18% -31.1%
20% -38.1% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$60 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses202 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)316 / 316
History coverage104d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 316 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$9 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$19 -74%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$15 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$14 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$12 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 17 $139 +$5 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$40 -80%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 16 $50 +$7 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $172 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $152 +$21 +14%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $130 +$21 +16%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 16 $50 −$28 -57%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$47 +93%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 16 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 16 $111 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $103 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $96 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 15 $88 +$7 +8%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $51 +$38 +75%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $45 +$6 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 15 $40 +$6 +14%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $34 +$6 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $27 +$9 +33%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $45 −$31 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $44 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 10 $50 −$6 -12%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 09 $196 +$9 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 09 $170 +$26 +16%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 09 $165 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $17 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $27 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $14 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $7 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 948 history records