Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x620a…2200 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$63 (+47%) realized +$83 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$42
sports 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.5% +48.9% 100% 100% +48.9%
≤30d 1 +64.5% +48.9% 100% 100% +48.9%
≤90d 1 +64.5% +48.9% 100% 100% +48.9%
all 1 +64.5% +48.9% 100% 100% +48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.9% 100% +48.9%
10% +34.6% 100% +34.6%
15% +21.6% 100% +21.6%
20% +9.7% 100% +9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$62 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 38m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.16 · official $9.96 (match) · 6 history records