Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x620a…5fcc sports 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$13
other 25% −$15
politics 18% −$5
economics 6% +$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 4 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.1%
all 257 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 251
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage653d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $46 −$4 -10%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $61 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 7PM ET Jan 12 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8AM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 8AM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $188 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3AM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 12AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $122 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 1PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 7AM ET Jan 10 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11PM ET Jan 10 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 10PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 10PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 9AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 9AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $63 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 11PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 4PM ET Jan 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $265 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 11AM ET Jan 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4PM ET Jan 09 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $336 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $256 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $336 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $60 7d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $61 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $42 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 21d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 34d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 34d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 157d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 157d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 158d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 158d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $23 158d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $124 158d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $125 158d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 158d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $0 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $63 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $4 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $24 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $34 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $2 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $27 159d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 159d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $124 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 926 history records