Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x6206…cf4c other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$733 (+33%) realized +$724 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%44W / 37L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$362
7 days+$445
14 days+$499
30 days+$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$240
crypto 14% +$168
sports 10% +$28
world 10% +$265
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +35.8% +22.9% 57% 45% +45.0%
≤30d 81 +18.6% +7.3% 54% 43% +31.9%
≤90d 81 +18.6% +7.3% 54% 43% +31.9%
all 81 +18.6% +7.3% 54% 43% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 43% +31.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 35% +19.2%
15% -12.3% 23% +7.7%
20% -20.9% 21% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$5 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$724
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses44 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions43
Markets (closed)81 / 116
History coverage17d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 0¢ 88¢ $0 $57 +$57 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $40 +$40 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $33 $37 +$3 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 33¢ 86¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+162%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 63¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 0¢ 90¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-7%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 83¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 0¢ 98¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $75 +$211 +280%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $21 +$13 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$146 +299%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $37 +$14 +39%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +182%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$9 -92%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$22 +720%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $14 +$52 +362%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$37 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$15 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $64 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $75 +$72 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$6 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 49m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 50m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 53m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 54m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 54m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 54m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 37¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 25¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.86 · official $568.62 (match) · 778 history records