Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6206…531d other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$19
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$10
sports 25% +$35
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -31.2% -37.7% 41% 27% -7.9%
≤30d 43 -34.4% -40.6% 40% 26% -8.1%
≤90d 43 -34.4% -40.6% 40% 26% -8.1%
all 43 -34.4% -40.6% 40% 26% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 26% -8.1%
10% -46.3% 12% -16.9%
15% -51.5% 12% -24.9%
20% -56.2% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)43 / 57
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$6 +3%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $191 +$2 +1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +78%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$15 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $79 +$16 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 +$12 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 44m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 45m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 46m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $96 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $97 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 63¢ $40 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.53 · official $119.53 (match) · 132 history records