Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6203…6280 other 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,547 (-2%) realized −$10,615 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%76W / 136L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,406per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$2,938est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$6,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$25,180
sports 47% −$37,697
world 0% −$2,326
crypto 0% +$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +58.0% +42.9% 46% 46% -55.6%
≤30d 38 +36.8% +23.8% 45% 42% -26.1%
≤90d 183 -22.8% -30.1% 27% 26% -38.1%
all 212 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 32% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 32% -22.1%
10% -20.0% 31% -29.6%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 31% -36.4%
20% -34.8% 29% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$3,069) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,975 vs −$2,139 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$6,484
Realized−$10,615
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses76 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$2,938
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$2,406
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 48¢ $6,415 $6,484 +$68 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6,895 −$6,791 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7,035 −$6,965 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,020 −$3,998 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7,004 −$4 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,856 −$4,854 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7,865 −$38 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $646 −$634 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,663 −$3,663 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $708 +$1,217 +172%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$51 +161%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$45 +879%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6,970 −$6,968 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6,792 +$7,070 +104%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $583 +$286 +49%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $6,510 −$6,286 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $538 +$491 +91%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$41 +519%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6,557 −$6,514 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $928 +$1,282 +138%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3,120 −$3,120 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,729 +$7,363 +426%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $457 +$193 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $262 +$287 +109%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $96 −$96 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $546 −$534 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,116 +$1,958 +176%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $4,487 +$6,944 +155%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,632 −$1,625 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $2,441 −$2,440 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $84 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $3,024 −$3,003 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5,017 +$10,062 +200%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5,937 −$5,937 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,647 +$2,013 +122%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,069 −$3,069 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6,102 +$9,478 +155%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4,720 −$24 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,132 +$1,074 +21%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4,183 −$4,183 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $2,808 −$2,808 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,757 −$1,757 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6,020 −$6,020 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $3,370 −$2,684 -80%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $3,427 +$6,053 +177%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,402 −$1,402 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3,530 −$3,530 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $53 17m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $47 17m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $120 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $9 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $9 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $89 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $22 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $149 19m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $12 19m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $66 19m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $46 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $4 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $26 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $27 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5,733 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $240 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $68 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $6,860 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 50¢ $69 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1,292 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2,000 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,483.72 · official $6,483.72 (match) · 3500 history records