Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6202…a1fc crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$589 (-21%) realized −$589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$345
other 21% −$84
politics 6% −$35
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.0% -8.6% 70% 60% -5.6%
≤30d 34 -6.8% -15.6% 65% 56% -18.5%
≤90d 34 -6.8% -15.6% 65% 56% -18.5%
all 91 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 41% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 41% -24.6%
10% -31.3% 35% -31.8%
15% -37.9% 25% -38.4%
20% -44.0% 18% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage264d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $132 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$42 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$33 +33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$4 +129%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$29 -70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $71 −$53 -74%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$10 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $71 +$12 +17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$25 -25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$14 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $207 −$207 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 28 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Feb 28 $1 $0 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 27 $40 −$34 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$18 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 27 $40 +$16 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $20 +$14 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 27 $25 +$9 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 27 $20 +$12 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records