Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x6200…3c7d other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$253 (-24%) realized −$251 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$158
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$256
crypto 26% +$10
other 26% −$2
tech 4% −$2
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -14.3% -22.5% 67% 33% -42.7%
≤90d 7 -19.6% -27.2% 71% 14% -41.5%
all 15 -22.2% -29.6% 73% 7% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 7% -37.3%
10% -36.4% 7% -43.3%
15% -42.5% 7% -48.8%
20% -48.2% 7% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$80 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage173d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $237 $235 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $161 −$158 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $102 +$58 +57%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $158 −$156 -98%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $241 +$10 +4%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Mar 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 06 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.20 · official $235.20 (match) · 27 history records