Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6200…7d23 sports 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,783 (-4%) realized −$3,783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 160L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days−$2,253
14 days−$4,602
30 days−$4,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,493
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 32% -14.7%
≤30d 272 -17.6% -25.5% 43% 34% -14.5%
≤90d 281 -17.9% -25.7% 43% 34% -14.6%
all 281 -17.9% -25.7% 43% 34% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 34% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 28% -22.7%
15% -39.3% 23% -30.2%
20% -45.3% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$153 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2,905
Realized−$3,783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions9
Markets (closed)281 / 290
History coverage50d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 64¢ 66¢ $1,151 $1,186 +$35 (+3%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 66¢ 64¢ $938 $902 −$36 (-4%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 71¢ 72¢ $603 $619 +$15 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 44¢ 50¢ $121 $137 +$15 (+12%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Twisted Minds 72¢ 72¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 9¢ 6¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-27%)
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Uwinks 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-97%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Cloud Rising 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $165 +$66 +40%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $42 +$19 +46%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $17 +$124 +712%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $390 +$12 +3%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $2,677 +$127 +5%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $187 +$70 +37%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $513 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $109 +$60 +55%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $141 −$137 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $2,396 +$572 +24%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $330 +$121 +37%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 13 $225 +$114 +51%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $178 +$15 +8%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $211 +$51 +24%
ITF Los Angeles: Maria Aytoyan vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 12 $659 −$484 -73%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $457 +$145 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $794 −$66 -8%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $101 −$76 -75%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $645 −$630 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $66 +$119 +180%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $73 +$102 +140%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $125 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $332 −$324 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 12 $63 +$20 +32%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $197 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $702 −$686 -98%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $93 −$91 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Jun 12 $139 −$74 -53%
ITF Nice: Tatiana Pieri vs Alina Granwehr Jun 12 $174 +$99 +57%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1,161 −$372 -32%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $213 +$900 +422%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -97%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Semra Aksu Jun 12 $395 +$32 +8%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $59 −$59 -99%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $523 +$163 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 29¢ $7 23m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $164 42m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $164 42m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $164 42m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 2¢ $1 45m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 66¢ $167 45m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 8¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 4¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 2¢ $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA BUY Twisted Minds 72¢ $42 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 68¢ $114 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 68¢ $174 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 7¢ $5 7h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $80 9h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $85 9h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $16 10h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 7¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 7¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $27 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $23 11h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $27 11h
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 4¢ $1 12h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 36¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,904.80 · official $2,904.80 (match) · 2165 history records