Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fd…5b6e crypto 768 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,320 (-15%) realized −$26,458 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%348W / 403L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,327
7 days−$3,112
14 days−$1,893
30 days−$11,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27,735
other 0% −$160
world 0% +$70
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -26.7% -33.7% 39% 38% -29.5%
≤30d 216 -3.0% -12.3% 41% 39% -28.1%
≤90d 751 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 44% -24.7%
all 751 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 44% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 44% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 41% -31.9%
15% -29.9% 37% -38.5%
20% -36.8% 31% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$212 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$778
Realized−$26,458
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses348 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)751 / 768
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Down 28¢ 42¢ $300 $442 +$142 (+47%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $846 −$807 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $355 −$339 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $602 +$161 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $361 −$342 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$120 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $834 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $618 −$594 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $526 −$500 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$299 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $230 +$182 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $1,048 +$1,491 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $1,151 −$1,099 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $550 −$525 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$111 +107%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$142 +133%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $156 +$204 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $321 +$302 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$18 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$281 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $328 +$292 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $728 +$826 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $586 −$564 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $315 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $249 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $260 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $262 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $778.22 · official $767.49 · 3500 history records