Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

61 0x61fc…bfd9 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown97%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-23.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-15.8%	-23.8%	50%	50%	+14.0%
≤30d	2	-15.8%	-23.8%	50%	50%	+14.0%
≤90d	2	-15.8%	-23.8%	50%	50%	+14.0%
all	2	-15.8%	-23.8%	50%	50%	+14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.8%	50%	+14.0%
10%	-31.1%	50%	+3.1%
15%	-37.8%	50%	-6.9%
20%	-43.9%	50%	-16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$10 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown97%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$26	$26	+$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$21	$20	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$28	+$19	+68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$26	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	42¢	$21	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$28	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.26 · official $46.27 (match) · 5 history records