Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61fb…7ee0 other 73 markets active 5h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 44L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$2
economics 29% +$1
world 16% +$10
other 16% +$2
sports 3% +$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.0% -4.1% 44% 11% -7.8%
≤30d 11 +4.9% -5.0% 36% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 20 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 10% -9.2%
all 70 +1.4% -8.3% 37% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage348d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 66¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $88 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $83 $0 -1%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 22 $20 −$2 -12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $86 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $607 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $1,214 +$1 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $550 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 22 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 21 $3 $0 +7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jul 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 21 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 20 $15 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 19 $18 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $97 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $92 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $97 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $51 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $0 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $50 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records