Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x61fa…6b3b other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,608 (-2%) realized −$1,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$92
politics 33% −$44
sports 11% −$1,502
world 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% +$20
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 0% -10.9%
all 100 -4.1% -13.2% 8% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -11.0%
10% -21.5% 5% -19.5%
15% -29.1% 4% -27.3%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,180) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized−$1,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $678 $678 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,223 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $240 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $455 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $367 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,520 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,195 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,323 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? Apr 21 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,141 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,135 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,194 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,204 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $678 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,006 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,112 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,114 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,102 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $963 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $916 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $917 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $511 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $512 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $496 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $497 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $388 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $388 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $410 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.92 · official $677.92 (match) · 298 history records