Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x61fa…7f62 sports 958 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107,730 (-51%) realized −$107,740 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%534W / 420L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$3,069est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$24,771
other 0% −$137
crypto 0% −$76
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -12.2% -20.6% 61% 45% -23.1%
≤30d 402 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 47% -17.2%
≤90d 954 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 47% -20.2%
all 954 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 47% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 47% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 34% -27.8%
15% -33.9% 22% -34.8%
20% -40.4% 14% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$156 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$107,740
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses534 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,069
Open positions2
Markets (closed)954 / 958
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 954 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 18¢ 26¢ $304 $458 +$154 (+51%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Clement Tabur 72¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $356 +$79 +22%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $201 +$47 +23%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 +$16 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $60 +$22 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $38 +$22 +58%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $66 +$9 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$18 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $22 +$9 +43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $37 +$3 +8%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $23 +$14 +59%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $501 −$304 -61%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $134 −$55 -41%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $76 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $404 −$136 -34%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $294 −$110 -38%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $324 +$21 +6%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $672 −$134 -20%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $421 −$421 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $1,191 +$70 +6%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $245 +$92 +38%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $228 −$34 -15%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $509 +$111 +22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $100 +$17 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$3 -20%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $120 +$64 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $106 +$47 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $70 +$33 +47%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $69 +$9 +13%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 15 $12 −$5 -47%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $60 −$31 -51%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $33 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $7 +$1 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 26¢ $102 25m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 27¢ $102 25m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 23¢ $4 27m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 10¢ $103 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $102 36m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $435 40m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $155 51m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 81¢ $101 51m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 81¢ $101 51m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $248 52m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $101 1h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 24¢ $20 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 72¢ $139 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 72¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 99¢ $225 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 75¢ $117 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 88¢ $201 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $101 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $22 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $82 9h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 95¢ $82 9h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $60 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $60 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 86¢ $75 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $75 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $38 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $38 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 88¢ $66 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $66 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.06 · official $562.39 · 3500 history records