Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
61 0x61fa…a0f5 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+44%) realized −$47 · open +$667
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$520
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-88.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -86.2%
≤90d 6 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -86.2%
all 6 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -86.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -88.7% 0% -86.2%
10% -89.8% 0% -87.5%
15% -90.8% 0% -88.7%
20% -91.7% 0% -89.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$25 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,862
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$667
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage130d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $1,098 $1,853 +$755 (+69%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $97 $9 −$88 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $24 −$16 -69%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $44 −$25 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $99 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 27h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $705 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $422 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $99 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,861.94 · official $1,861.94 (match) · 24 history records