Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f9…ad9d world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$2
other 17% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 6% -9.1%
all 28 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.0%
10% -22.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -29.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage457d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$5 +18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $9 $0 +5%
Will Julius Randle Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $39 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $27 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $35 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records