Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f8…615a crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$37
world 8% $0
sports 4% +$8
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.6% -30.9% 32% 32% -37.3%
≤30d 19 -23.6% -30.9% 32% 32% -37.3%
≤90d 19 -23.6% -30.9% 32% 32% -37.3%
all 19 -23.6% -30.9% 32% 32% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 32% -37.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 32% -43.3%
15% -43.5% 32% -48.8%
20% -49.1% 32% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Down 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.16 · official $10.54 (match) · 47 history records