Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f7…1308 crypto 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%269W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -2.6% -11.9% 79% 49% -13.2%
≤30d 342 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 47% -13.0%
≤90d 342 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 47% -13.0%
all 342 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 47% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% -13.0%
10% -20.1% 21% -21.4%
15% -27.8% 12% -29.0%
20% -34.9% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses269 / 73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.57 · official $5.57 (match) · 666 history records