Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f6…e497 sports 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,445 (+4%) realized +$4,942 · open −$1,497
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%155W / 159L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$1,002est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$6,928
other 7% +$3,823
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +120.6% +99.6% 48% 38% +0.3%
≤30d 73 +128.7% +106.9% 51% 41% +0.9%
≤90d 314 +32.0% +19.4% 49% 38% +4.6%
all 314 +32.0% +19.4% 49% 38% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.4% 38% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here +8.0% 32% -5.4%
15% -2.5% 26% -14.5%
20% -12.0% 23% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$126 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$8,168
Realized+$4,942
Unrealized−$1,497
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses155 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,002
Open positions38
Markets (closed)314 / 334
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$276
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 84¢ 84¢ $2,464 $2,478 +$15 (+1%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 93¢ 100¢ $1,074 $1,150 +$76 (+7%)
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas Seattle Orcas 44¢ 37¢ $1,219 $1,019 −$200 (-16%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ 62¢ $511 $851 +$340 (+66%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 94¢ 88¢ $534 $500 −$34 (-6%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Under 54¢ 68¢ $323 $412 +$89 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 29¢ 20¢ $336 $235 −$101 (-30%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 94¢ 94¢ $228 $228 −$0 (-0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals 63¢ 100¢ $137 $217 +$80 (+59%)
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 52¢ 48¢ $213 $199 −$14 (-7%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 14¢ 16¢ $154 $170 +$16 (+11%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 55¢ 100¢ $86 $155 +$69 (+80%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 4¢ 72¢ $6 $102 +$97 (+1687%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 64¢ 80¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+24%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 36¢ 38¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage Dallas Fuel 88¢ 90¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ 6¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage MIBR Academy 36¢ 34¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce Cangrejeros de Santurce 53¢ 66¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 58¢ 100¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+73%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? No 32¢ 80¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+152%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ 48¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Bamin Real Potosí end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 56¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+143%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 52¢ 39¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fortress (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group C Fortress 32¢ 26¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada Jun 28 $1 +$13 +1884%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 28 $377 −$378 -100%
Will Chicago Stars FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 28 $2 −$13 -818%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 28 $2 −$2 -88%
World Championships: USA vs. Hungary Jun 28 $0 +$73 +43879%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 28 $74 +$29 +39%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $568 −$172 -30%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $117 +$108 +92%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 28 $572 +$167 +29%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 28 $65 +$1 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $182 +$11 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $755 −$682 -90%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $91 −$23 -25%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 28 $228 +$98 +43%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $13 −$2 -13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $47 +$54 +113%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $134 +$86 +64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $65 −$20 -31%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $53 +$57 +109%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 28 $35 +$13 +37%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $171 −$169 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $17 −$17 -98%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $146 −$144 -98%
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr Jun 28 $14 +$11 +78%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $78 −$52 -68%
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru Jun 28 $46 −$44 -97%
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro Jun 28 $39 −$38 -97%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $133 +$37 +27%
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 28 $34 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $1,007 −$989 -98%
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Grou Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Luxembourg Jun 28 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $591 +$177 +30%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Esport BERG (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group Jun 28 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $750 +$590 +79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,490 +$2,656 +178%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $1,249 +$2,107 +169%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 28 $115 +$5 +4%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $641 +$32 +5%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 28 $430 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $1 0m
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 39¢ $40 0m
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 40¢ $42 0m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $193 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $99 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $8 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $193 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $4 2m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $117 4m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 1¢ $1 4m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 1¢ $2 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ $10 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ $7 5m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 1¢ $1 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 18¢ $6 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $2 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $3 6m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 62¢ $3 6m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 92¢ $4 6m
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 38¢ $11 7m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 91¢ $4 7m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $34 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $23 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $17 9m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $0 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $9 9m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 86¢ $16 10m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 91¢ $8 11m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 7¢ $3 13m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $3 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,167.84 · official $8,167.42 (match) · 3500 history records