trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 25% | 8% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 25% | 8% | -9.0% |
| all | 24 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 42% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.8% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -19.3% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -27.1% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $43 | $43 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 06 | $16 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $130 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 03 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $13 | +$3 | +21% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Dec 12 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? | Jul 02 | $1 | −$1 | -64% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 02 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jul 01 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 01 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 23 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 22 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce | Mar 03 | $8 | $0 | +5% |