Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61f1…7aef sports 763 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,957 (+14%) realized +$6,132 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%388W / 351L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Fees−$637est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,079
7 days+$2,993
14 days+$3,083
30 days+$4,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,919
other 7% +$53
weather 1% +$106
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$14
world 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 46% +3.7%
≤30d 739 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 48% -0.2%
≤90d 739 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 48% -0.2%
all 739 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 48% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 48% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -9.7%
15% -23.1% 35% -18.5%
20% -30.7% 29% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$38 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,984
Realized+$6,132
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses388 / 351
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$637
Open positions24
Markets (closed)739 / 763
History coverage27d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 48¢ $750 $660 −$90 (-12%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $290 $258 −$32 (-11%)
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 74¢ $123 $180 +$58 (+47%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 34¢ $200 $156 −$44 (-22%)
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins 52¢ 64¢ $65 $79 +$14 (+22%)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 41¢ 42¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+156%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers 31¢ 74¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+140%)
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 49¢ 4¢ $64 $6 −$58 (-91%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 1 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 0 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 0 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 FC Universitario? Yes 51¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 1 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-52%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 3 FC Universitario? Yes 52¢ 25¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-52%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 33¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Under 41¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 38¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $256 −$250 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $507 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $381 −$375 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $609 +$553 +91%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $407 +$502 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 29 $73 +$139 +192%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $699 −$98 -14%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $99 +$42 +43%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $145 +$218 +150%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $2,000 −$817 -41%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $299 +$365 +122%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $10 +$13 +138%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $58 +$40 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $99 +$40 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $100 +$101 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $81 +$122 +150%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $221 +$179 +81%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $235 +$57 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $33 +$31 +95%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" 20+ times during the Colombia vs Por Jun 28 $14 +$1 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $99 +$5 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $130 +$517 +398%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $24 −$8 -32%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $456 +$530 +116%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $211 +$437 +207%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $92 +$317 +344%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $152 +$181 +119%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $307 +$943 +307%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $92 −$90 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $152 +$148 +97%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $153 +$472 +307%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $41 +$36 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $150 +$56 +38%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $8 +$1 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $456 +$348 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 27 $209 +$97 +46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $149 −$146 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $41 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $4 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $15 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $3 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $2 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 37¢ $841 4m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1,017 7m
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $123 19m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $1 22m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $63 22m
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $42 27m
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $27 27m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 33¢ $1 39m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 33¢ $4 39m
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Texas Rangers 31¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 1h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 38¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $128 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $128 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $381 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $128 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $168 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $760 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,984.36 · official $1,984.45 (match) · 2346 history records