Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61ed…0f5d other 514 markets active 0h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,435 (-2%) realized −$2,481 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%413W / 98L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$527
7 days−$630
14 days−$679
30 days−$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,973
crypto 9% +$7
tech 5% −$3
weather 3% +$7
sports 3% −$520
politics 2% +$1
culture 1% +$3
world 0% −$4
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -31.0% -37.6% 37% 35% -48.1%
≤30d 84 -29.6% -36.3% 46% 24% -41.5%
≤90d 207 -11.2% -19.7% 76% 11% -18.2%
all 511 -4.1% -13.2% 81% 5% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -11.7%
10% -21.5% 3% -20.2%
15% -29.1% 2% -27.9%
20% -36.0% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$2,481
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses413 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)511 / 514
History coverage188d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 52¢ 100¢ $49 $94 +$45 (+92%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 66¢ $47 $66 +$19 (+41%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 38¢ 34¢ $47 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$4 -8%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 −$39 -79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $49 −$46 -93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$42 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $48 +$44 +92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $48 +$37 +77%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$26 +52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$31 +65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $29 −$25 -85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $39 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$8 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 $0 +14%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $39 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 50¢ $43 17m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 50¢ $1 19m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 50¢ $1 19m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 50¢ $2 19m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 52¢ $50 45m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $74 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 52¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 52¢ $39 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $48 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 10¢ $10 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 5¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 46¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $46 4h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $49 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $41 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $42 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $48 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $48 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 51¢ $93 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $48 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $48 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.17 · official $243.92 · 1213 history records