Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x61e9…0e4c crypto 1654 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,943 (+11%) realized +$2,901 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate91%1506W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$461
other 30% −$35
sports 6% −$691
finance 1% +$21
tech 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +101.0% +81.9% 100% 100% +81.9%
≤30d 196 -4.1% -13.2% 82% 29% -21.4%
≤90d 1653 +0.3% -9.3% 91% 19% -10.4%
all 1653 +0.3% -9.3% 91% 19% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 19% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 7% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$2,901
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1506 / 147
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1653 / 1654
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $135 $177 +$42 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $68 +$69 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $13 −$10 -78%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,029 −$998 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$21 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $17 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $253 +$190 +75%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8? Jun 08 $296 +$9 +3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $279 +$206 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 27 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $25 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $26 −$24 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 27 $24 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $25 −$24 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $25 +$132 +529%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $24 −$22 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $24 −$23 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $24 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $24 +$10 +42%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $25 +$36 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $25 −$23 -95%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $25 −$23 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $25 −$23 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 27 $24 +$7 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 27 $23 +$8 +35%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +38%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 27 $24 +$15 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 27 $21 +$2 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $23 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $137 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $68 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $159 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 72¢ $151 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $30 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $703 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $15 8d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $22 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 10d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 10d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $17 10d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $76 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $25 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 68¢ $101 10d
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 5? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 14d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205? BUY No 19¢ $5 14d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $24 14d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8? BUY No 97¢ $272 14d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 5? BUY No 90¢ $4 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $152 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.83 · official $176.83 (match) · 3500 history records