Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x61e7…6e8b
crypto · 224 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$55,139 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$50,905 · open +$5,647
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 7 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$21,582
30 days+$37,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $20,385 $21,381 +$997 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $17,000 $18,055 +$1,055 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $8,600 $10,327 +$1,727 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $4,652 $6,446 +$1,794 (+39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 74¢ $4,101 $4,598 +$497 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $2,000 $2,096 +$96 (+5%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $2,004 $1,486 −$518 (-26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 76¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 44¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 25¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $8,800 +$682 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $5,000 −$590 -12%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,342 +$185 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $6,003 +$926 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $6,000 +$1,622 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $26,000 +$1,264 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $36,546 +$10,056 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $19,515 +$7,561 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 28 $15,999 −$4,753 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7,700 −$3,011 -39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $6,147 −$5,620 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10,800 +$9,838 +91%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $1,000 +$571 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 24 $3,500 +$1,509 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $24,400 +$3,937 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $17,400 +$1,164 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $20,260 +$704 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $4,000 +$651 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $7,180 +$263 +4%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 19 $69 −$14 -21%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $5 $0 -2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House May 19 $10 −$1 -11%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 19 $20 −$11 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 19 $23,693 +$1,440 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 18 $6,066 +$1,631 +27%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,712 −$1,712 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 17 $16,000 +$8,123 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 17 $4,257 +$641 +15%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $4,598 +$1,059 +23%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $498 −$367 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 12 $522 +$206 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $617 −$75 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $200 +$425 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 10 $206 +$102 +49%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 09 $1,250 −$52 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 09 $2,001 −$653 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $52 +$87 +169%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $1,228 −$844 -69%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 06 $5,036 +$626 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 05 $861 −$95 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $5,000 −$1,244 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 04 $4,045 −$160 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 01 $1,783 +$319 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 01 $4,258 +$1,024 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 01 $10,122 +$4,280 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $3,341 +$1,699 +51%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 30 $550 +$126 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% +$45,297
finance 19% +$12,832
crypto 4% −$685
politics 1% +$721
economics 1% +$541
other 1% −$1,522
sports 0% −$631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $4,486 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $4,000 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $3,962 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $101 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17,000 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,880 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $3,362 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $10,590 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5,313 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,477 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $334 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3,134 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,990 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,000 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $2,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,501 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,500 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,792 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $300 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,600 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,000 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 45% +2.6%
≤90d 187 +2.3% -7.4% 58% 46% +1.4%
all 217 +3.2% -6.7% 57% 46% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 46% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -8.3%
15% -23.7% 26% -17.2%
20% -31.2% 18% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,388.80 · official $64,388.80 (match) · 1227 history records