Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61e7…afdd crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$610 (+22%) realized +$883 · open −$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$576
other 5% +$717
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +38.7% +25.5% 40% 30% +5.5%
≤30d 30 +38.7% +25.5% 40% 30% +5.5%
≤90d 30 +38.7% +25.5% 40% 30% +5.5%
all 30 +38.7% +25.5% 40% 30% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.5% 30% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here +13.5% 23% -4.6%
15% +2.5% 23% -13.8%
20% -7.5% 23% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$65 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$883
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $145 +$89 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$73 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$160 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $126 +$104 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$63 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$46 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$9 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$50 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $209 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$147 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$264 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$149 +289%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $48 +$620 +1283%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $233 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $233 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $145 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $42 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $116 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $58 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $42 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $42 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 89 history records