Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

61 0x61e2…01d5 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$109 (+6%) realized +$75 · open +$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%14W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$75

7 days+$216

14 days+$151

30 days+$96

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+44.8%	+31.0%	78%	78%	+74.5%
≤30d	26	-7.4%	-16.2%	54%	54%	-2.0%
≤90d	26	-7.4%	-16.2%	54%	54%	-2.0%
all	26	-7.4%	-16.2%	54%	54%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	54%	-2.0%
10%	-24.2%	50%	-11.4%
15%	-31.6%	42%	-20.0%
20%	-38.3%	35%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -47% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$36 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$539

Realized+$75

Unrealized+$34

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses14 / 12

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions13

Markets (closed)26 / 39

History coverage21d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$100	$120	+$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$100	$81	−$19 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	38¢	58¢	$50	$77	+$27 (+54%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	24¢	$50	$73	+$23 (+47%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	64¢	63¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	59¢	56¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-6%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	47¢	35¢	$50	$37	−$13 (-26%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	53¢	60¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	66¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	87¢	84¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	87¢	83¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	27¢	14¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$1	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$7	+65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$71	+$63	+89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$36	+70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$51	+$116	+226%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 12	$102	+$103	+101%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$10	+$12	+114%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$51	−$50	-98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Jun 07	$50	+$21	+42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 07	$50	+$20	+40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 07	$101	−$100	-99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 07	$20	−$20	-98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 06	$10	−$10	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 06	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 06	$50	+$15	+29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 06	$50	+$12	+24%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 31	$102	−$102	-100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	May 31	$202	+$110	+55%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	May 31	$50	−$50	-99%
Knicks vs. Spurs	May 31	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	38¢	$51	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$10	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	29¢	$20	26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	77¢	$50	29h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	30¢	$51	6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Team Falcons	39¢	$51	8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	49¢	$102	8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	BUY MIBR	37¢	$51	12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Dplus KIA	75¢	$101	13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Anyones Legend	26¢	$20	13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	BUY G2 Esports	70¢	$50	13d
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Top Esports	71¢	$50	13d
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	14d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	43¢	$10	14d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	46¢	$10	14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	77¢	$50	14d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Dplus KIA	80¢	$50	14d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	BUY Team Vitality	67¢	$50	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.57 · official $538.57 (match) · 79 history records