Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61e1…17da crypto 1404 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%934W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$32
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$118
sports 41% +$75
other 5% −$160
weather 0% −$4
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 402 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 62% -12.9%
≤30d 851 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 51% -10.9%
≤90d 1166 -0.7% -10.2% 71% 49% -10.6%
all 1404 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 47% -11.1%
10% -19.5% 33% -19.6%
15% -27.3% 24% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses934 / 470
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1404 / 1404
History coverage158d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1404 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3174 history records