Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61e1…66eb crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 41% -18.4%
≤30d 29 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 41% -18.4%
≤90d 29 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 41% -18.4%
all 29 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 41% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -26.2%
15% -33.1% 38% -33.3%
20% -39.6% 24% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$11 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$9 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$5 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$6 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$13 +169%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +120%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$12 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$12 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $8 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $19 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records