Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61e1…8f1c other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-25%) realized −$160 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$19
politics 7% −$31
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -56.1% -60.2% 33% 33% -23.4%
≤30d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -30.3%
≤90d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -30.3%
all 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 40% -30.3%
10% -46.2% 30% -37.0%
15% -51.4% 30% -43.1%
20% -56.2% 10% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage14d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $60 +$60 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 22 $33 −$31 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 −$53 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $31 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $85 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $75 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $12 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.62 · official $147.88 (match) · 35 history records