Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61df…7ec2 crypto 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$720 (-17%) realized −$718 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%164W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$22
14 days+$24
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$733
economics 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +10.6% +0.1% 66% 57% +0.9%
≤30d 168 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 48% -2.4%
≤90d 251 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 43% -11.3%
all 311 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 38% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 38% -25.3%
10% -25.4% 30% -32.4%
15% -32.6% 25% -38.9%
20% -39.2% 20% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses164 / 147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)311 / 312
History coverage200d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records