Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x61dc…3d86 weather 637 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$171 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%602W / 25L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$17
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 141 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 627 +1.6% -8.0% 96% 2% -9.1%
all 627 +1.6% -8.0% 96% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 1% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.75 per $1 lost it wins $4.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses602 / 25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)627 / 637
History coverage89d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $377 $378 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $341 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 36°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $77 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $45 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $377 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $43 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $142 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.97 · official $850.97 (match) · 1458 history records