Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61d9…4030 crypto 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,460 (-4%) realized −$3,491 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%136W / 113L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,105
7 days+$3,234
14 days+$3,729
30 days+$2,864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +31.2% +18.7% 73% 70% +19.7%
≤30d 73 +13.7% +2.9% 67% 60% +5.1%
≤90d 249 +7.8% -2.4% 55% 52% -14.0%
all 249 +7.8% -2.4% 55% 52% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 52% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 51% -22.3%
15% -20.3% 50% -29.8%
20% -28.1% 50% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$382 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$3,491
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses136 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$346
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $437 $468 +$31 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $314 +$277 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $403 +$406 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$11 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $208 +$172 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $233 +$159 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $204 +$163 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $202 +$152 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $145 +$117 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $226 +$199 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $393 +$463 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $241 +$191 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $139 −$139 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $383 +$329 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $481 +$467 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $309 +$31 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $381 +$415 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $285 +$294 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $329 −$329 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $224 +$207 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $179 +$145 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$247 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$71 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $197 +$156 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$47 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $325 −$325 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $423 +$326 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$113 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $197 +$166 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $149 +$114 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $321 −$321 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $260 +$253 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $367 −$367 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$50 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$12 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$253 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $229 +$199 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$120 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $298 −$298 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $132 +$97 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $157 +$121 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $314 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $453 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $403 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $208 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $176 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $204 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $202 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $145 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $226 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $393 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $241 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $139 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $383 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $481 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $309 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $381 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $285 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $329 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $224 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $292 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $179 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $303 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $98 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $197 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $71 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $325 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.97 · official $467.97 (match) · 3500 history records