Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61d8…30d9 sports 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,444 (-6%) realized −$2,309 · open −$135
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate85%291W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$92
14 days+$94
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$1,009
other 41% −$1,552
world 10% +$152
politics 1% +$25
crypto 1% −$101
culture 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 7% -8.1%
≤30d 35 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 81 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 12% -9.7%
all 343 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 29% -15.2%
10% -20.4% 10% -23.4%
15% -28.1% 2% -30.8%
20% -35.1% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$98 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$2,123
Realized−$2,309
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses291 / 52
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions12
Markets (closed)343 / 355
History coverage168d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $352 $346 −$6 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $299 $293 −$6 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 93¢ $288 $278 −$10 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Croatia 96¢ 100¢ $191 $199 +$8 (+4%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $178 $182 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $158 $181 +$23 (+15%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $121 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 92¢ 88¢ $92 $88 −$4 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 92¢ 43¢ $183 $86 −$98 (-53%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $81 −$27 (-25%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 70¢ $88 $63 −$24 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 27 $195 +$5 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $186 +$13 +7%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 27 $191 +$9 +4%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $289 +$10 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $186 +$13 +7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 26 $289 +$10 +4%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 26 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $393 +$7 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $105 $0 -0%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $191 +$6 +3%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 25 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $203 +$12 +6%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $319 +$11 +3%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $176 +$23 +13%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $190 +$10 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $193 +$7 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $437 +$41 +9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $181 +$19 +11%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $233 +$7 +3%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $190 +$10 +5%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 21 $190 +$10 +5%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $189 +$11 +6%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $182 +$16 +9%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $192 +$2 +1%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $179 +$21 +12%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $186 +$13 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 27 $193 +$6 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 17 $189 +$4 +2%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 17 $187 +$7 +4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso May 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 07 $183 +$25 +14%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $191 +$9 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $182 +$17 +9%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Apr 22 $200 +$16 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $204 +$96 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $192 +$50 +26%
Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $196 +$3 +2%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $328 −$328 -100%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5) Apr 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5 Apr 13 $168 +$12 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 29m
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 30m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Croatia 96¢ $16 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $288 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $15 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Croatia 96¢ $96 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Croatia 96¢ $80 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $23 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $3 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $10 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $2 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $159 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $2 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $199 18h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Egypt 97¢ $195 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $186 20h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $200 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $300 20h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 96¢ $191 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $96 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $96 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $96 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $200 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $300 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $152 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY France 97¢ $138 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $186 27h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $199 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $92 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,123.09 · official $2,125.89 (match) · 1375 history records