trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -45.1% | -50.3% | 50% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -63.4% | -66.9% | 33% | 0% | -38.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -54.5% | -58.8% | 33% | 17% | -60.2% |
| all | 6 | -54.5% | -58.8% | 33% | 17% | -60.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -58.8% | 17% | -60.2% |
| 10% | -62.7% | 17% | -64.0% |
| 15% | -66.3% | 17% | -67.5% |
| 20% | -69.6% | 17% | -70.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? | Yes | 99¢ | 98¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 54¢ | $86 | $64 | −$21 (-25%) |
| Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? | Jun 17 | $16 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? | Jun 17 | $110 | +$9 | +8% |
| Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? | May 29 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? | May 15 | $5 | +$3 | +63% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi | May 14 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | May 14 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |