Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x61cd…60fb sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$83 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$2,738
14 days−$2,564
30 days−$2,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,592
other 11% −$529
world 9% −$2,145
politics 4% +$17
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 33% -67.9%
≤30d 67 +21.5% +9.9% 46% 45% -56.5%
≤90d 67 +21.5% +9.9% 46% 45% -56.5%
all 102 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 46% -9.8%
10% -2.5% 42% -18.4%
15% -12.0% 39% -26.3%
20% -20.6% 31% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$153 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 123
History coverage249d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $308 −$300 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $301 +$48 +16%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $280 +$14 +5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 28 $10 −$8 -84%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain w Jun 27 $10 +$51 +506%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$31 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$11 +216%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $5 +$36 +699%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Bucks Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 23 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $10 +$32 +312%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$10 +192%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$13 +250%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$16 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 88¢ $301 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $280 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND SELL 1¢ $2 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL 3¢ $1 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 8¢ $10 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 9¢ $10 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: DR C BUY 8¢ $5 15h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY 13¢ $5 15h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Colombia v BUY 13¢ $5 15h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: BUY 4¢ $5 26h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $13 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Cabo Verde wi BUY 3¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06- BUY 9¢ $5 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 40h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain w BUY 16¢ $10 40h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: C BUY 13¢ $5 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 31¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 5¢ $2 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.78 · official $4.78 (match) · 284 history records