Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61cc…f549 crypto 1284 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,383 (-23%) realized −$8,383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%774W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day65.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,796
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -20.6% -28.1% 48% 47% -32.2%
≤30d 1144 -10.3% -18.9% 56% 56% -21.5%
≤90d 1284 -3.2% -12.5% 60% 60% -18.8%
all 1284 -3.2% -12.5% 60% 60% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 60% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 57% -26.6%
15% -28.5% 47% -33.7%
20% -35.5% 33% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses774 / 510
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1284 / 1284
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day65.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1284 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $323 +$142 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$20 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $243 +$523 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $137 +$126 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$57 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $272 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $61 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $128 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $170 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records